REIT Whitepaper - pdf click here REIT Unsecured Debt Issuance – Advantage Public REITs There has been a flurry of Unsecured Bond issuance by the Publicly Traded REITs YTD. This has strengthened corporate balance sheets and provides the REITs with a competitive advantage at a time when other CRE borrowers are struggling to access new/refinance existing debt. The collective public REIT balance sheet is in excellent shape with record low levels of leverage and ample … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2024
December 11, 2023 by
REIT Outlook 2024 - Pdf Click Here REIT Outlook 2024 Brighter Prospects Ahead After Two Disappointing Years 2024 Return expectations –We expect REITs will generate 8-10% total returns in 2024, approximately half comprising of a cash dividend yield of ~4%. REITs are on track to generate about 3% total returns over 2023. This is slightly below our forecast of +5-7% for Y23 a year ago as the REIT sector and capital markets have declined as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to curb inflation. In 2024, we assume there will be an economic … [Read more...]
Office Notes March ’23
April 10, 2023 by
Office Notes March '23 - pdf click here April 10, 2023 Summary: Office Properties seem to be caught in a Perfect Storm. While we hear of general concerns about CRE and REITs, we do regard many of the challenges being faced by offices to be specific to offices alone and that office exposure is a limited REIT problem because they are minimally represented in the NAREIT Index. This contrasts with offices representing a large part of the overall commercial real estate market. Office woes seem likely to remain in the headlines for some time; however, we believe they will see a revival in the … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2023
December 5, 2022 by
REIT Outlook 2023 - Pdf Click Here REIT Outlook 2023 Yield and Diversification Appeal in Uncertain Environment 2023 Return expectations –We expect REITs will generate 5-7% total returns in 2023, approximately two-thirds comprising a cash dividend yield of ~4%. REITs are on track to generate around -25% total returns over 2022. This is well below our forecast of +8-10% for Y22 which we made one year ago. The sector as well as both debt and overall equity markets have weakened principally because the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2022 Q3
October 11, 2022 by
REIT Flash Q3 2022 - Pdf Click Here REIT Stocks Declined Over Third Quarter REITs Underperformed the Overall Equity Market Over 3Q and YTD as Interest Rates have Climbed REITs, as measured by the NAREIT Equity Index (total return) returned -10.83% over 3Q22 and -27.92% over the first three quarters of Y22. The last time REITs logged three consecutive negative quarters was 1998, which marked another period of high global economic and political uncertainty. In August 1998 stock prices fell by over 14 percent, the largest one-month decline since the famous crash of October 1987. At … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2022 Q2
July 13, 2022 by
REIT Flash Q2 2022 - Pdf Click Here “Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving forward” – Albert Einstein REIT Stocks Decline Over Second Quarter Modestly Underperformed the Overall Market Over 2Q and 1st Half (1H) 2022 REITs, as measured by the NAREIT Equity Index (total return) returned -17.0% over 2Q22 and -20.2% over 1H22. The overall market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (total return) returned -16.1% over 1Q22 and -20.0% over 1H22. Macro factors – inflation, the Fed, global monetary policy and the Ukraine War have dominated … [Read more...]
Private Equity Real Estate (PERE) – Past Peak June 2022
June 27, 2022 by
Uniplan Whitepaper PERE Past Peak June 2022 - Pdf Click Here The outlook for returns from Private Equity Real Estate (PERE) has materially declined which, we believe, leaves Public REITs looking relatively attractive. Higher inflation (8.2% Y/Y CPI in May) has forced the Fed to raise interest rates (FFR +75bps in June to 1.25%) with expectations of several more increases to come. This has increased the Cost of Capital (immediately so regarding debt) and put downward pressure on asset prices. For Commercial Real Estate (CRE) this meant upward pressure on Cap Rates (lower income … [Read more...]
Offices in 2022
April 28, 2022 by
Uniplan Whitepaper Office REITs 2022 - Pdf Click Here A Relatively Inexpensive, Long-term Underperforming Sub-Sector Appears to be Taking a Turn for the Better with the Gradual Return-To-Office, Offering the Prospect of Future Outperformance. Offices underperformed the NAREIT Index in 2021 by 22.3% (+22.0% vs +44.3% index) but have outperformed in a down market over 1Q22 by 8.1% (+2.8% vs -5.3%). Sentiment has been weighed down by Work from Home (WFH)/delayed Return to Office (RTO). The ‘reopening’ theme worked in 2021 for the Malls, Shopping Centers and Apartments: Offices … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2022 Q1
April 21, 2022 by
REIT Flash Q1 2022 - Pdf Click Here "He is not a full man who does not own a piece of land." - Hebrew Proverb. REITs Down with Broader Market Over First Quarter Modestly Underperformed the Overall Market After a very strong 2021, REIT total return as measured by the NAREIT Equity Index, gave up some ground, declining 5.3% during 1Q22. The overall market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (total return), fell 4.6% during the same period. Inflation, Rates and … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2022
December 8, 2021 by
REIT Outlook 2022 - PDF Click Here REIT Outlook 2022 Summary of Key Points: REIT returns for 2022 are estimated to be 8%-10%, with about one-third of that return provided by healthy and growing dividends and the balance reflective of earnings growth during the year. Growth inducing central bank policies continue to support REIT and commercial real estate valuations going forward as the global economy continues to gather momentum. Low bond yields (negative across many markets) make stable and growing REIT dividend yields attractive on a relative and absolute basis as an … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2021 Q3
October 15, 2021 by
REIT Flash Q3 2021 - Pdf Click Here “Everything is habit-forming, so make sure what you do is what you want to be doing.” -Wilt Chamberlin REITs Flat on the Quarter REITs, as measured by the NAREIT Equity Index (total return), were essentially flat for the quarter ended 9/30/2021 as was the Uniplan REIT Portfolio for the same period. REITs Modestly Underperformed in 3Q vs the Overall Market, Maintaining Outperformance YTD REITs, as measured by the NAREIT Equity Index (total return), returned +0.22% in 3Q21 and +21.6% YTD through September 30th. The overall market, … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2024 Q1
1Q24 REIT Flash - pdf click here 1Q24 REIT Review/Outlook Executive Summary REITs underperformed the broader market during the quarter. Publicly traded REITs continue to trade at a substantial discount to their net asset value (NAV) versus the private market values of their portfolios. It is our forecast that these discounts are bottoming and will begin to narrow as REIT valuations move up and private market values adjust to the generally higher cost of capital and … [Read more...]