HITR Flash Q1 2024 The Next Big Thing Investors are often trapped in a myopic position of looking at markets and investment returns on a day-by-day and monthly basis. It’s easy to get caught up in the crisis of the moment as media talking heads and their expert guest enablers jockey to say something more sensational and more headline grabbing than the last expert. Welcome to the world of soundbites and social media. As investment … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2024 Q1
April 18, 2024 by
1Q24 REIT Flash - pdf click here 1Q24 REIT Review/Outlook Executive Summary REITs underperformed the broader market during the quarter. Publicly traded REITs continue to trade at a substantial discount to their net asset value (NAV) versus the private market values of their portfolios. It is our forecast that these discounts are bottoming and will begin to narrow as REIT valuations move up and private market values adjust to the generally higher cost of capital and … [Read more...]
REIT Whitepaper – Unsecured Debt Issuance
February 22, 2024 by
REIT Whitepaper - pdf click here REIT Unsecured Debt Issuance – Advantage Public REITs There has been a flurry of Unsecured Bond issuance by the Publicly Traded REITs YTD. This has strengthened corporate balance sheets and provides the REITs with a competitive advantage at a time when other CRE borrowers are struggling to access new/refinance existing debt. The collective public REIT balance sheet is in excellent shape with record low levels of leverage and ample … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2024
December 11, 2023 by
REIT Outlook 2024 - Pdf Click Here REIT Outlook 2024 Brighter Prospects Ahead After Two Disappointing Years 2024 Return expectations –We expect REITs will generate 8-10% total returns in 2024, approximately half comprising of a cash dividend yield of ~4%. REITs are on track to generate about 3% total returns over 2023. This is slightly below our forecast of +5-7% for Y23 a year ago as the REIT sector and capital markets have declined as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to curb inflation. In 2024, we assume there will be an economic … [Read more...]
Comparing BREIT and Public REITs October ’23
November 7, 2023 by
Comparing BREIT and Public REITs October '23 - pdf click here October 2023 Comparing BREIT’s Operating Performance/Management Fees to Public REITs Operational Performance is likely to be the biggest driver of future RE Returns We believe future returns from commercial real estate (CRE) investments are likely to accrue more from operational gains and less from cap rate compression and/or the use of high leverage because of the likelihood of higher interest rates in the future than those that prevailed over 2008 - 2021. Most publicly traded REITs are … [Read more...]
HITR Flash Q3 2023
November 6, 2023 by
HITR Flash Q3 2023 - Pdf Click Here "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." ~ Warren Buffet Our Current Key Macro-Economic and Stock Market Assumptions As per our macro assumptions noted below, earnings growth has turned negative on a year-over-year basis. Market valuations that were stretched thin at the start of Q2 have moved lower since late July with the broader market averages all recently entering correction territory, as defined by closing at more than 10% below their recent highs. As noted in past HITR Flash Reports, US equities … [Read more...]
REIT Flash 2023 Q3
October 30, 2023 by
REIT Flash Q3 2023 - Pdf Click Here Uniplan REIT Portfolio Flash Report 3Q 2023 The REIT Valuation Conundrum In the face of rising interest rates and growing economic uncertainty, REITs have underperformed the broader market by a wide margin. Over the past year, REITs have underperformed the S&P 500 by 2000 bps. The real underperformance began in early March, when the Fed began to clearly signal higher for longer on rates as inflation persisted … [Read more...]
HITR Flash Q2 2023
August 2, 2023 by
HITR Flash Q2 2023 - Pdf Click Here “Let’s clear something up. Buybacks do not RETURN money to shareholders. A dividend does.” ~ Warren Buffet Why Dividends Are Important in the Current Macro Environment Bond yields are up dramatically since their all-time lows. August 4, 2020, marked what appears to be the low yield in the US Treasury 10-year bond at 0.52%. Had you invested in a 10-year bond on that day, you locked in a yield of one half of one percent for a decade. Fast forward three years and as of July 21, 2023, the yield on the US 10 Year bond was 3.85%. Purchased at its low … [Read more...]
2Q/1H 2023 REIT Review/Outlook
July 12, 2023 by
REIT Flash Q2 2023 - Pdf Click Here 2Q/1H 2023 REIT Review/Outlook REITs Post Modest 2Q/1H Gains Underperform vs the Overall Market, 2Q and 1H. The equity market (SPX) ended 2Q23 at close to its all-time highs. Much of the gains in the SPX over 2Q and 1H were driven by the strong performance of several tech mega-caps. NASDAQ Composite was up 13.1% over 2Q23 and 32.3% over 1H23. The performance of many stocks other than those big tech companies has been … [Read more...]
HITR Flash Mid Q2 2023
May 11, 2023 by
HITR Flash Mid Q2 2023 - Pdf Click Here “There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it.” -Alfred Hitchcock The HITR Portfolio The Uniplan High Income Total Return (HITR) Portfolio finished the quarter behind the broader market and its blended benchmark as each of the portfolio’s respective sectors lagged their benchmarks. Common stocks trailed by the widest margin as the leadership in mega cap technology names unexpectedly rebounded versus the broader market. The markets were surprisingly calm during the quarter as they continue to digest higher rates and … [Read more...]
1Q23 REIT Review/Outlook
April 18, 2023 by
REIT Flash Q1 2023 - Pdf Click Here REITs Post Modest Gains Amidst Volatile Markets Underperforms vs the Overall Market. REITs, as measured by the NAREIT Equity Index (total return) returned 1.7% over 1Q23. The overall market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (total return) added 7.5% over 1Q23. Equity markets (SPX and NASDAQ) hit recent highs in Jan before falling back in Feb and March. Lower rates and portfolio rebalancing combined for an optimistic start to the year before concerns about inflation, interest rates and the economic outlook prompted a more cautious turn. … [Read more...]
Micro Cap Mid Q2 2024 Flash Report
Uniplan Micro Cap Portfolio Flash Report - pdf click here "Every virtue carried to the extreme, is a vice." ~Aristotle At our investment policy committee meeting in 1Q23, we summarized the relative valuation disparity between Micro Cap stocks and their larger S&P 500 brethren. Our conclusions were as follows: Executive Summary: The Equity Risk Premium looks unattractive for large stocks but highly attractive for small stocks. Historically, small stocks have provided higher returns than large … [Read more...]