REIT Outlook 2024 - Pdf Click Here REIT Outlook 2024 Brighter Prospects Ahead After Two Disappointing Years 2024 Return expectations –We expect REITs will generate 8-10% total returns in 2024, approximately half comprising of a cash dividend yield of ~4%. REITs are on track to generate about 3% total returns over 2023. This is slightly below our forecast of +5-7% for Y23 a year ago as the REIT sector and capital markets have declined as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to curb inflation. In 2024, we assume there will be an economic … [Read more...]
Comparing BREIT and Public REITs October ’23
November 7, 2023 by
Comparing BREIT and Public REITs October '23 - pdf click here October 2023 Comparing BREIT’s Operating Performance/Management Fees to Public REITs Operational Performance is likely to be the biggest driver of future RE Returns We believe future returns from commercial real estate (CRE) investments are likely to accrue more from operational gains and less from cap rate compression and/or the use of high leverage because of the likelihood of higher interest rates in the future than those that prevailed over 2008 - 2021. Most publicly traded REITs are … [Read more...]
Office Notes March ’23
April 10, 2023 by
Office Notes March '23 - pdf click here April 10, 2023 Summary: Office Properties seem to be caught in a Perfect Storm. While we hear of general concerns about CRE and REITs, we do regard many of the challenges being faced by offices to be specific to offices alone and that office exposure is a limited REIT problem because they are minimally represented in the NAREIT Index. This contrasts with offices representing a large part of the overall commercial real estate market. Office woes seem likely to remain in the headlines for some time; however, we believe they will see a revival in the … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2023
December 5, 2022 by
REIT Outlook 2023 - Pdf Click Here REIT Outlook 2023 Yield and Diversification Appeal in Uncertain Environment 2023 Return expectations –We expect REITs will generate 5-7% total returns in 2023, approximately two-thirds comprising a cash dividend yield of ~4%. REITs are on track to generate around -25% total returns over 2022. This is well below our forecast of +8-10% for Y22 which we made one year ago. The sector as well as both debt and overall equity markets have weakened principally because the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised … [Read more...]
Private Equity Real Estate (PERE) – Past Peak June 2022
June 27, 2022 by
Uniplan Whitepaper PERE Past Peak June 2022 - Pdf Click Here The outlook for returns from Private Equity Real Estate (PERE) has materially declined which, we believe, leaves Public REITs looking relatively attractive. Higher inflation (8.2% Y/Y CPI in May) has forced the Fed to raise interest rates (FFR +75bps in June to 1.25%) with expectations of several more increases to come. This has increased the Cost of Capital (immediately so regarding debt) and put downward pressure on asset prices. For Commercial Real Estate (CRE) this meant upward pressure on Cap Rates (lower income … [Read more...]
Offices in 2022
April 28, 2022 by
Uniplan Whitepaper Office REITs 2022 - Pdf Click Here A Relatively Inexpensive, Long-term Underperforming Sub-Sector Appears to be Taking a Turn for the Better with the Gradual Return-To-Office, Offering the Prospect of Future Outperformance. Offices underperformed the NAREIT Index in 2021 by 22.3% (+22.0% vs +44.3% index) but have outperformed in a down market over 1Q22 by 8.1% (+2.8% vs -5.3%). Sentiment has been weighed down by Work from Home (WFH)/delayed Return to Office (RTO). The ‘reopening’ theme worked in 2021 for the Malls, Shopping Centers and Apartments: Offices … [Read more...]
Micro Cap Review & Outlook Flash Report
January 8, 2022 by
Micro Cap Review & Outlook Flash - Pdf Click Here “Inflation is like taxation without legislation.” ― Milton Friedman Summary Micro Cap performance in 2021 was achieved largely in Q1 with the balance of the year being mostly rangebound. A shift in Fed Policy toward a more inflationary bias noted in 2020 is leading to a rotation from growth to value and should benefit small stocks. A modest rise in inflation expectations might be good, but policymakers may need to be careful because … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2022
December 8, 2021 by
REIT Outlook 2022 - PDF Click Here REIT Outlook 2022 Summary of Key Points: REIT returns for 2022 are estimated to be 8%-10%, with about one-third of that return provided by healthy and growing dividends and the balance reflective of earnings growth during the year. Growth inducing central bank policies continue to support REIT and commercial real estate valuations going forward as the global economy continues to gather momentum. Low bond yields (negative across many markets) make stable and growing REIT dividend yields attractive on a relative and absolute basis as an … [Read more...]
Whitepaper CRE/REITs and Inflation
February 12, 2021 by
CRE/REITs and Inflation - Pdf Click Here Commercial Real Estate/REITs and Inflation Long dormant, inflation has become part of many investor conversations recently, reflecting rising concerns that it may soon return. The Treasury bond market has been signaling there is a risk of increased inflation with higher yields for longer dated securities, and this message is resonating in parts of the equity market that are regarded as being interest rate sensitive. REITs (as per the NAREIT … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2021
December 10, 2020 by
REIT Outlook 2021 - Pdf Click Here REIT Outlook 2021 Summary of Key Points: Supportive central bank policies should support REIT and commercial real estate valuations going forward. Low bond yields make stable and growing REIT dividend yields attractive on a relative and absolute basis as an alternative to fixed income. REIT returns for 2021 are estimated to be 7-9% with half coming from yield and the balance reflective of earnings growth during the year. … [Read more...]
REIT Outlook 2020
December 3, 2019 by
REIT Outlook 2020 - Download Pdf REIT Outlook 2020 Overview As we head into the Q4 earnings season, we took the opportunity to attend the annual NAREIT REIT World Investor Conference in November. The following are some key takeaways on the outlook for 2020 from the many one-on-one meetings along with our outlook for 2020. We continue to have a generally positive view toward the equity REIT sector, while recognizing that the current risk-on environment could result in … [Read more...]
REIT Whitepaper – Unsecured Debt Issuance
REIT Whitepaper - pdf click here REIT Unsecured Debt Issuance – Advantage Public REITs There has been a flurry of Unsecured Bond issuance by the Publicly Traded REITs YTD. This has strengthened corporate balance sheets and provides the REITs with a competitive advantage at a time when other CRE borrowers are struggling to access new/refinance existing debt. The collective public REIT balance sheet is in excellent shape with record low levels of leverage and ample … [Read more...]